Head-Meat wrote on Oct 19^th, 2022 at 8:01pm:


the Fax of Life?

Oh look, someone did the math for me and pretty much confirms what I was saying - you should be pulling almost two named items/artifacts per run.  Something is up where my drop rate suddenly dropped to one item per 3 runs.

Have a toon that just hit high enough level.  Will do a few runs to see what that toon pulls.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aMTqlOPLGzopWqH0vsrNibvFoh3qJKfPZk81qFNF...

can you get a named item and a key at the same time
can you get a named item and a key and a chocolate at the same time

that would seem to be the test to make

Everling wrote on Oct 21^st, 2022 at 10:19am:


Yes. This is because the clumping issue affects different players in different ways. One item is not truly "rarer" than the others, its just that each player is experiencing a different bias in the RNG.


Let's say a chest has 4 named items in it. Each item is weighted the same(25% chance). In classic DnD fashion this is done with a d100 table wherein each item is assigned 25 values on the table.

If my RNG bias favors the numbers 1-75, then Item #4 on the table will be the rarest. If your RNG bias favors numbers 26-100, then Item #1 will be the rarest. If your RNG is working correctly, then you actually have an equal chance of getting each item.

Thusfar I don't have a single character it works "correctly" on. One of my pet-theories is the RNG seed in some way incorporates your public-facing IP address, which explains why some players report no problems and others report massive ones. But this is based on nothing. According to the devs, the RNG seed is based on the server's date/time, so whatever is introducing the bias is further up the food chain than the mechanism that does /roll d100.

noamineo wrote on Oct 23^rd, 2022 at 4:36pm:


noamineo wrote on Oct 23^rd, 2022 at 4:34pm:


liljiggy wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2022 at 7:38pm:

liljiggy wrote on Oct 22^nd, 2022 at 7:38pm:



Difficulty matters a lot. My experience matches what I'd expect from the "known" rates which are something like 10% chance of a drop on Norm, 16% on hard, and 33% on leet. +1% per reaper skull.

When I'm farming gear, my results seem to match this pretty well. Obviously you can get unlucky. I've been there too. Also, you can't know for sure if the named item list is weighted equally. But, I generally get my desired item by my 4th run using a loot pot and re-rolls on R1.

Using RL example: There are 5 named items in Death House.

Base chance: 33% elite+1%skull+10% potion=Base chance of 44% for a named item per chest.


Keylock would be, theoretically, a 20% drop when a named shows up. So, .44*.2= 8.8% chance for a keylock ring per chest.

How many loots will it take to pull it? Around 11.5 pulls. If you're running as above and doing max re-rolls, you'll get ~16 loots in 4 runs. Most often I've looted my item before that. Sometimes less. Sometimes more. Sometimes I ransack with rerolls and don't get it. But most often, my experience matches this probability.

Just one Meat-Head's experience.


Contrast that will running on hard with no potion. Now you have a ~3.2% chance per loot to get a keylock ring. An average of 32 loots to get one item. You'll get one, on average, per ransack with max rerolls.

Head-Meat wrote on Oct 24^th, 2022 at 7:55pm:


Ran elite (quick flagging run on an alt I keep capped).  I did grab any quick opts I could along the way because I was curious, so minimum of 2 to 4 chests per quest.

12 quests and I think I pulled no named item and 2 Ravenloft weapons.

Slick Stick wrote on Oct 25^th, 2022 at 12:42pm:


3rd life so it might as well be 1st.  Even calling it an alt is being generous.  A just in-case toon I leave at cap if there's ever a raid or whatever I basically want to pike and have nothing else in that level range at the time.

Don't even think it has 10 reaper points, just a handful of crap tomes I've thrown its way here and there and most importantly; no jibbers.  Technically it was fully capable of being put through reaper but I didn't want to spend a lot of time getting it back into epics, so I just blasted through everything on elite.

Right, ran the loop 3 times after the update and got:

4 named items
8 filigrees
3 rare filigrees
1 1000XP gem
1 mark of the silver flame
1 star fragment

I absolutely saw a jump up in the loot tables (consistently pulling 2 special items per run vs 1 every 3 runs before) as well as the number or rares spawning per run (10 to 11 vs the 6 or 7 I had been seeing).

I'm calling it - the loot tables massively change during events.  Just something you might want to file away; don't bother farming named items during events because the numbers are against you.  Just look at the numbers of my 3 runs vs 10 runs a week or so ago.

Head-Meat wrote on Nov 3^rd, 2022 at 6:35pm:


Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained through incompetence.

liljiggy wrote on Nov 3^rd, 2022 at 6:44pm:



Reasonable.