I was curious about how the new to-hit mechanic will affect hit chances, overall DPS and such, especially considering some of the recent controversy regarding Power Attack.

wumpus wrote on May 15^th, 2012 at 12:33pm:


In order to do the analysis, I wrote a spreadsheet to compare to-hit values with and without Power Attack.  It turns out that the to-hit mechanic has some interesting features, and Power Attack still appears to be a very useful feat in many circumstances.  I'll spare you the tables of data, but here are the relevant formulas:


AB = Player Attack Bonus
AC = Monster AC

To-hit without Power Attack (assuming proficiency):

( ( (AB + 10.5) / AC ) / 2 ) + 0.25


To-hit with Power Attack (assuming proficiency):

( ( (AB + 5.5) / AC ) / 2 ) + 0.25


So here are some results of the analysis

AB	AC	To-hit difference
10	10	0%
10	15	16.7%
10	25	10%
40	32	0%
40	36	6.8%
40	65	3.8%
40	165	1.5%
100	75	0%
100	79	3.2%
100	100	2.5%
100	175	1.4%
200	145	0%
200	151	1.7%
200	200	1.3%

I the table above, I highlighted the maximum hit difference between PA vs. No PA.  At each Player To-Hit value, there is a monster AC where you will hit 95% of the time, and more to-hit doesn't help.  As monster AC rises there is a slight bubble where you are still hitting all the time without PA, but the to-hit loss from PA makes a big difference in your overall hit percentage.  After that, as monster AC continues to rise, the incremental hit difference from PA matters less and less.

In fact, looking at the chart, you can see that as character levels and to-hit bonuses rise, the difference in hit percentage with and without PA tends toward zero.

Now, because of the way that player to-hit percentages are calculated (they are rounded to the nearest 5% to simulate a d20), a to-hit difference of 6.8% could end up being either 5% or 10%.  Therefore, except in the cases where you have maxxed out your hit percentage with PA (monster AC is much less than your to-hit bonus), there is always the chance that PA results in you hitting 5% of the time less than you otherwise would.  On the other hand, at higher levels, the worst-case scenario is that using PA will lower your hit percentage by 5 points.

Therefore, at higher levels, if you are doing 200 points of damage or less per swing without PA, using PA will never reduce your DPS and always has the potential to increase it. 

In fact, even in the worst case (at AB=10 and AC=15), PA reduces your hit chance at the most by 20%, and so you have to be doing 50+ points of damage per swing before you won't see any benefit from PA.

Based on this, I think PA is a no-brainer addition to any melee.

Edited:

Never mind.

I am retarded.

JC wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 12:27pm:



Lol, those aren't the Beta forums.

I wonder if leaking the new to-hit mechanics without any context is going to cause mass hysteria?


PS - I probably wouldn't punch you in the face if we met.

Schmoe wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 12:39pm:

You're good at this!

Schmoe wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 12:49pm:

Hey, Schmoe, why should I be peanut butter?

JC are you oxygen deprived currently, or at any time?

JC wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 1:06pm:



I replied to your post.

You have the PA - as 5, what do things look like when it's -11 for my HOrc/WF Barbs?

Stele wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 1:23pm:


Is the wiki wrong?

From the wiki:

Quote:


Anyway, if you get a -11 to hit from PA, the numbers don't look a whole lot different.  It's not quite as favorable for PA (obv), but the trends remain the same.  I excluded the low end of the table because no one with a to-hit of +10 will have a PA penalty of -11

AB	AC	To-hit difference
40	28	0%
40	36	15.1%
40	65	8.5%
40	165	3.3%
100	71	0%
100	79	7%
100	100	5.5%
100	175	3.1%
200	142	0%
200	151	3.6%
200	200	2.8%

Eladiun wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 1:59pm:


It's all so clear to me now!  Thanks. 

I need someone to break everything down without numbers. Should I have PA on if I am playing a barb,ftr, ranger and should I get rid of it on my wf FvS?

stainer wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 2:18pm:


It only hurts to use PA and miss more often if you actually do significant damage when you hit.  For your characters I'd go ahead and use PA.

nvm.

Reading is hard.