According to the devs, if a chest pull has a named item it then rolls on a table for the items that chest can drop with all of them being weighted equally.

In the number of chest pulls it took me to find a Legendary Gloves of the Tinkerer I picked up 10x Legendary Salt-Pearl Rings and 8x Legendary Skull of the Sea, and thats not counting about 5 more of each I rolled away.

But yes, I totally believe the RNG is working correctly 

Dr_tank2vich wrote on Dec 12^th, 2021 at 1:20pm:


This underscores the ongoing theory that its different for different people. I suspect when SSG looks at the drop rates and says "Everything is fine" they are either lying or looking at the global rates. Server-wide I'm sure it averages out, but individual players don't give two shits what the global drop rate is, all we care about is having to do 500 chest pulls to get a family recruit sigil.

Ohhh... the yearly tinfoil-hat-club meeting is taking place here? 🤔 😁 😂 🤣 🤣

we need a new Rodrak...

The numbers are in the DAT files.

noamineo wrote on Dec 12^th, 2021 at 1:36pm:


This is silly.  There's no way SSG has records of drop rates for items because the logging required to generate that would swamp their court reporter like system.  If they knew drop rates, or even what they sold, in any real fashion, tracing the duped goodie would have been hella trivial (and we all know they haven't remotely done that).

It helps to remember that don't really have a loot "table".  They have a series of nested tables (probably even more than two layers deep) that would look like a spiderweb of relationships for which none of them are mathematical geniuses.  There's no way these devs can look at an item and tell you it's "drop rate" without doing more math than they are capable of because any change in allocation of a range that applies to a table would shift drop rates across entire groups of items.  They also likely have no idea how their pRNG works (since their RNG is going to be pseudo).  Until the code leaks, we'll never know if they have a seed algorithm, if they used a built in function, or they had some genius who wrote his own broken one in assembler.

When global drop rates are accurate, and consistent, it's pretty easy to tell thru brute force.  For example, Dark Souls series drop rates are well known, even the ones at 1-2%.  It's a simple enough system I've effectively brute forced anything collectible in all 3 games that occurs through drop rates. 

I'll leave you with this,

Quote:


If you trust the "system" black box because, know you, it's the system, then you shouldn't be allowed near a dev environment.  Black boxes like pRNGs should be heavily tested (we call it "black box testing") to ensure behavioral accuracy.  SSG is a tiny outfit of stunted humans that produces exceptionally buggy software.  The odds their pRNG is bugged are around 50/50, the odds their pRNG and/or loot table nesting is bugged is 90/10. 

In fact, we know their loot tabling is bugged because they've had to "correct" issues in it before where the effective rate was not their intended rate (which means they don't know math on their own system).  Now, if your system is incapable of looking at any given chest and communicating the rate on every potential drop, you don't have a system, you are guessing.

SSG - ymmv (your math may vary)

i2049 wrote on Dec 18^th, 2021 at 12:24pm:


This is I think the most likely explanation. Yes RNG can do some crazy things but we definitely see too many "patches" of behavior in DDO and that's just not normal. Its like my coinflip analogy early - getting heads 50 times in a row and then tails 50 times in a row is statistically possible, but if it followed about that same pattern for 10,000 coin flips you'd say your quarter was broken.

He's saying they're playing with the RNG on the server side.

It's a different type of stupid.

bob the builder wrote on Dec 19^th, 2021 at 4:07pm:


Well I'm paraphrasing but I think it went something like:

Quote:


I don't actually feel like tearing through the motherboards for the past 4 years trying to find the actual post. I found this on the DDO Wiki:

Quote:


That's from Steelstar god rest his soul. Basically, the game adds up all the percentages and decides whether or not you are pulling a named item. It then rolls on a table for named items. If a chest has, say, 3 named items it can drop(such as the salt marsh explorer chests), they are supposed to be weighted equally on that table.

If they were correctly weighted equally, than out of say 12 named item drops you should see each named item at least once. Yes, it is statistically possible for this not to happen. The problem is its happening with much greater regularity than the laws of probability allow.

bob the builder wrote on Dec 19^th, 2021 at 4:29pm:


I guarantee they know which items are more sought after/valuable and set those to lower drop rate than others in the same chest

noamineo wrote on Dec 19^th, 2021 at 4:28pm:


I don't think anyone ever said each named items was weighted equally... that is you just assuming or trying to guess based on what was said.

Since you don't know 100% then all your previous assumptions and arguments about RNG being broken have no merit, since this seems to be the entire basis of your argument.

Not trying to be a dick.  Just pointing out that we do not know if they are weighted equally.  So I believe the chance of getting some named item is probably based on difficulty.  but then the 2nd roll to determine WHICH named you get is 100% weighted NOT EQUALLY and that is the intent of the devs to have some named items be less likely to drop than others.

but I have no proof of that either... but based on running for Jibbers and other prized named items that seems to be borne out by the anecdotal evidence we have

bob the builder wrote on Dec 19^th, 2021 at 4:51pm:


Kinda his thing Bob. Seriously, for the last year nearly half his post have been this silly shit. As you can see from his post above he also has this well-worn routine of claiming "he knows" this or that, or saw some such Dev say something he want's to claim... and always fails to back it up with the simplest citation or even a measly link.

Why does he post silly shit like this? He does it because he is constantly trying to post something that people around here that have a modicum of respect or status on the vault will engage with in hopes that he will eventually become accepted.

Ironically, his posts only accomplish the opposite... and regular readers are forced to wade through his banal, ignorant and boring shit posts anytime they want to find the good stuff by decent posters. 

iliveyourdream13 wrote on Dec 23^rd, 2021 at 4:36pm:


That makes it an insult to Steel so I'll stick with by my words.

My apologies to anyone else caught in the crossfire - insults are like hand grenades.

bob the builder wrote on Dec 25^th, 2021 at 9:42am:



Don't hold your breath man, as a rule Nomoreo just makes this shit up and has yet to provide a quote or link LOL!